On victory and no victory – Kim Ghattas in The Atlantic:

‘War has been a fact of life for civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border since October 8, when, after 17 years of relative calm there, Hezbollah launched its first missiles against northern Israel in support of Hamas. Israel’s relentless, methodical shelling of a five-kilometer-deep area along the border inside Lebanon has created a de facto, uninhabitable dead zone. Some 90,000 Lebanese have been displaced, and civilian infrastructure, livestock, and agricultural land have been destroyed. Israel has targeted Hezbollah fighters with some success, killing 349 of them—but at least 50 Lebanese civilians have also been killed.

Hezbollah’s shelling of Israel has been less intense and damaging, but it has struck deeper into Israeli territory. Some 60,000 Israelis have been evacuated from their homes in the north. Twenty-five Israelis, including civilians and soldiers, have been killed. The conflict has remained at a steady simmer but is now threatening to boil over as both sides stockpile weapons and Israel masses troops on the border. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has warned that full-blown war would be “catastrophic.”

The contours of a deal that would stop the fighting are already known. Israel wants Hezbollah to end cross-border attacks and withdraw its top fighters and heavy weapons from the border area, and the Lebanese army to deploy in larger numbers near the frontier. Hezbollah wants Israel to stop shelling Lebanon, withdraw from disputed border points, and stop overflights of Lebanon. And yet, diplomacy has stalled—in part because Hezbollah has tied Lebanon’s fate to the prospects for a cease-fire in Gaza, while Netanyahu’s political survival is linked to the continuation of that conflict.’

(…)

‘A conflict in Lebanon could draw in militias from Iraq and Syria. In the ultimate nightmare scenario, such a war could pull in Iran and the United States.’

(…)

‘The 1982 invasion of Lebanon was the first time Israel fought a guerrilla force instead of a traditional army, as it had previously done, successfully, against Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. It was also the first time it invaded and bombarded an Arab capital. It didn’t win that war and hasn’t won one since. In 1982, Oz wrote that “there can be no atonement for what we did in Beirut.” Yet that campaign became a template. Today, Gaza lies in ruins and thousands are dead, but most of the hostages are still in Hamas captivity, and the group is still standing. The war has been a strategic disaster for Israel. Netanyahu may consider it a kind of victory, if only because he is still in power. But as he looks to the north, where a much more formidable adversary awaits him, he should remember the lessons of the Begin era, when he was deputy ambassador to the United States: There is no military victory to be had in a large-scale war against Lebanon.’

Read the article here.

Absolutely true, there is no military victory possible in such a war.

And it’s still unclear if we are edging closer to a full-blown war with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

US warships are heading for the Lebanese coast, but this has happened before after October 7.

At least it’s a sign that also the US believes that the full-blown war is a serious possibility.

I still would say that all sides agree that the destruction of cities like Haifa and Beirut will just be more of the choreography of death, to quote Ghattas, without solving anything, but mistakes are bound to happen.

And needless to say, if the US gets involved this might also alter the election campaign.