On incursions – The Economist:
‘Ukraine’s lightning incursion into the Russian province of Kursk has exceeded the expectations of even those who planned it. On August 12th General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, claimed that his forces controlled roughly 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory. “Control” may be an overstatement. But in seven days the Ukrainians have seized almost as much territory as Russia has managed, at huge cost, to take from them since the start of the year (1,175 square kilometres). In the next few days the incursion will probably culminate, as troops tire and supply lines become stretched. The question is whether Ukraine can translate short-term gains into lasting strategic advantage.
The short-term gains are straightforward. Vladimir Putin has been palpably embarrassed: on August 12th he was shown on Russian state television castigating military, security and local government officials.’
(…)
‘A third option would be to withdraw partially to a more defensible position nearer the Ukrainian border which would require fewer troops and be better supported by artillery and logistics. It would also form a base for further attacks when opportunities arise. A source in Ukraine’s general staff suggests this is the most likely option: some logistics—engineering forces, fuel, field hospitals, food and repair bases—have already been moved several kilometres inside the Russian border.
Despite initial reports that Ukraine might seek to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant or other sensitive sites, the response from its allies has been surprisingly positive. The Biden administration, which has opposed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and restricted the use of American missiles on Russian soil, said that the operation was an acceptable use of American weaponry, including Stryker armoured vehicles. Germany, which usually worries about anything that might prompt Russian escalation, has pointed to Ukraine’s right of self-defence. There has been little sign of allies offering private or public rebuke of Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president. His challenge is now to translate the success of the past week into something enduring.’
Read the article here.
The question is: what will something enduring mean? Victory? More war? Also, at what point will Ukrainians and Russians get tired of dying for a few miles of territorial gain?
Once again, a perfect time to read or reread All Quiet on the Western Front.