On the beginning and the end of a war - Christoph Reuter in Der Spiegel:

‘While European countries, the United States, Australia and others are calling on their citizens to leave Lebanon and Western airlines have temporarily suspended flights to Beirut, the atmosphere in the city is oddly indifferent.

With tens of thousands of active fighters and up to 150,000 rockets, Hezbollah is the strongest power player in Lebanon. The Shiite militia’s name means "party of God.” It is closely allied with Iran and partially funded by the regime in Tehran. Alongside the militias in Syria and Iraq as well as the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, it belongs to the "Axis of Resistance,” which Iran formed in the region to oppose Israel, the United States and their Arab allies.
If it comes to retaliation or even a major war, Hezbollah will be a key factor.’

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‘Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in 1982, which was followed by 18 years of occupation, was decisive for the militia’s continued rise. The predominantly Shiite population initially greeted Israeli soldiers with relief. People were tired of Palestinian guerrillas firing on Israel from their villages while they had to pay for the consequences themselves.

However, the mood changed in 1983 as a result of the ruthlessness and violence of the Israeli troops. Meir Dagan, who later became head of the Mossad, ordered the assassination of a prominent Shiite cleric, which only hardened the resistance. Israeli paid the "South Lebanese Army,” a militia of local Christians, to run a torture prison in the small town of Khiam. Hezbollah relied on attacks with explosives and suicide bombers. By the time the civil war ended in 1990, the militia had evolved into a popular national resistance movement.’

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‘Lebanon will never forget May 7, 2008, when the government of then Prime Minister Fuad Siniora tried to take two things away from Hezbollah: its autonomous cell phone network and the post of head of security at Beirut’s airport. It was a direct attack on the foundation of the party’s power. Within hours, heavily armed Hezbollah units overran Beirut, occupied parliament and government buildings, and partially burned down the "Future TV” station of Hariri, the murdered former prime minister.
Government supporters called it "a coup” and asked the international community for help. But the Hezbollah putschists hadn’t planned on staying, as this brief demonstration of strength was enough for them. In political terms, Hezbollah hasn’t been hurt at all by the dramatic economic crisis that has plagued Lebanon since 2019. The less the state can provide for its citizens, the more important the parties that take care of their clientele have become. Hezbollah operates its own social welfare program, construction companies, medical care facilities and schools. When the Lebanese pound plummeted in value, Hezbollah members proudly showed themselves in a video displaying dollar notes. They were still receiving their salary in foreign currency.’

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‘For a decade and a half, until last October, mutual deterrence kept the two sides from fighting each other. And the eagerness to avoid confrontation produced some rather odd incidents. In 2020, for example, the New York Times revealed that, before planned attacks, Israel had warned Hezbollah members by telephone to immediately seek safety. A surveillance video showed an Israeli missile hitting the road in front of a Hezbollah Jeep Cherokee, the occupants running outside, and then one of them coming back to the vehicle to recover some bags and rucksacks. Moments later, a second missile turned the SUV into a fireball.
In late 2022, Lebanon and Israel agreed on a common maritime border, which was crucial for resolving the question of who owns which natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean. Officially, it was the Lebanese government at the negotiating table. But, behind the scenes, the decisions were really being made by Hezbollah.
"That was a good time, as people were able to live their lives in peace,” says Abbas, which is surprising given his previous pro-war comments. His contradictions reflect the divided nature of Hezbollah’s backers. In fact, a lot of them don’t want another war.’

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‘In late fall 2023, DER SPIEGEL met in Beirut with one of the Hezbollah officials responsible for building the rockets. As long as he remained anonymous, he was willing to talk about his operations, some of which he documented with photos.
For years, he had been training cadres in Iraq, Syria and Yemen to build rockets and modify existing import models. "The Syrians were OK, while the Iraqis were mainly waiting for the dinner break," he said, laughing about his allies. "But the Houthis were fantastic.” The unpredictable militia has an iron grip on western Yemen, attacks commercial vessels in the Red Sea and, a few weeks back, hit Israel with a drone from a distance of 2,000 kilometers. He calls them "the best students I’ve ever had,” adding that they are "eager to learn and quick learners.” All these militias are basically united by their shared unconditional loyalty to Khomeini’s heirs. Iran’s strategists have managed to turn tens of thousands of foreigners into faith-inspired followers and convince them to help them pursue Iran’s own national goals.’

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‘It’s only a small step to a chain reaction. If Hezbollah launches a retaliatory strike against Israel, the latter will strike back even more forcefully, and then Iran could give Hezbollah and the other loyal militias in Iraq, Yemen and Syria the green light to attack Israel. The restraint that the United States has struggled to preserve would end as soon as American forces intervened in Israel’s favor.
But then what? Israeli troops already marched into Lebanon in 1978, 1982 and 2006. There has never been a victory, only a postponement until the next round. An attack on Iran would be even riskier, an invasion impossible. Israel’s cabinet and generals could only rely on airstrikes to persuade Tehran to capitulate. But, historically, airstrikes have rarely led to surrender on their own. No one has a realistic plan on how to permanently end the war.
Meanwhile, the people in Beirut and southern Lebanon have no choice. "We survive from day to day and wait,” says Muhammad, the salesman who fled. "What other choice do we have?”’

Read the article here.

Interesting, Hezbollah might abhor the US, but their currency is the US dollar.

Military victory is impossible. All that Hezbollah needs for victory is the absence of total defeat.

The immense destruction of Israeli and Lebanese cities that looms large when it comes to a war will only bring more destruction or a pause till the next round.

Iran decides, as Dexter Filkins recently reported in The New Yorker as well. See here.

But according to this article, many Hezbollah members prefer no war to war. Understandably so. For what are you dying?