On threats – The Economist:

‘America’s economy is looking peaky. Inflation expectations are creeping up. On March 25th consumer confidence fell to its lowest in 12 years. But Donald Trump, the country’s president, says relief is at hand. “Liberation day” for the economy will arrive on April 2nd, he proclaims, when he intends to slap hefty new tariffs on imports from all over the world.
Since tariffs are in essence a tax on consumers, this is the sort of liberation that most corporate bosses and investors would happily do without. As a consolation prize, they may be hoping that April 2nd will at least bring certainty. Even this hope may ultimately prove forlorn, however. Although April’s tariffs are intended to be “reciprocal”, which means they would match those levied by other countries on American imports, the president has in recent days cast doubt on that idea. He has said that America “may be nicer” to some countries, without going into details.’

(…)

‘Deutsche Bank reckons that the uncertainty currently detected in the Fed index could end up shaving about three-quarters of a percentage point from America’s gdp over the next year or so. If the tariff uncertainty ends up being more prolonged—persisting until June, say—then the blow to growth could be twice as large.’

(…)

‘One way to grapple with all the uncertainty is simply to brace for worse. Consider the recession probabilities calculated by s&p Global Ratings. Were the credit-rating agency to base its assessment solely on its econometric model, it would conclude that the chance of a recession starting in the next 12 months is no higher than 10%. But factoring in subjective judgments about Mr Trump’s policies, it instead puts the risk of a downturn at 25%—close to its highest level in over a decade. That does not mean that a recession is imminent. But it does reflect the rising price of Mr Trump’s endless threats on trade.’

Read the article here.

Endless threats on trade and on many other things.

If you brace for the worst maybe reality will feel like heaven.

We expected to die and we are still alive.